Basic System in Business Cycles
Based on 'Solar Functional Energy' Cycle Model
Basic physics teaches us about gravitational force applicable on an object thrown up. The gravity of earth reduces the acceleration on the thrown object and reverses it to decelerate after the zero acceleration point and makes the object fall on the ground.
In business cycles in economics we face the similar situation of up trends and downtrends in the economic activities. Economy does not have uniform and unidirectional trends. After movements upward economic activities come downwards, may move on a level for sometime but never for long. As gravity of earth pulls down the upward going object to fall on ground some unknown force pulls economic activities down. What is that force?
Let us analyze economic activities. Economics is concerned with economic wealth and its creation. The most primary form of economic wealth is crops produced by human hands or primary handmade tools. Land, water, air and solar energy in the form of light and heat are the main factors used to produce crops. Land factor is a constant factor and whenever its fertility is reduced it is increased through adding fertilizers. Water factor is constant to certain degree only depending on natural rain water caused by seasons and artificial irrigation. Draughts and excessive rains are frequent phenomena that damage routine crop production. Plants and forests have great role in air or wind formation that helps cloud to move from place to place and rain. Sunrays have the potentialities to create cloud, rain, atmospheric pressure, warmth and other conditions for plants and vegetation to grow and sustain life on earth. The relationship between earth and sun in terms of distance and path, declination is almost constant for different regions of earth in a year. In spite of this there are wide variations in weather pattern and rain pattern mainly responsible for fluctuations in crop production. This in turn causes fluctuation in growth and decline of economic produce in terms of crops, commercial livestock, and plantation. There is widespread famine somewhere and devastating floods somewhere else. We all accept that sun is central to life and vegetation on earth. How this source of energy for earth which is constant in nature does produce the wide divergence on production pattern of agricultural resources beyond human hands?
Apart from the fluctuations in the crop production that is the base for sustenance of human life on earth there are fluctuations in the production of minerals and factory- produced good as well, which is the base for modern civilization. Not only there are varying trends in the volume of production of minerals from within the earth that is a constant source of reserved resources but also in the productions of final goods produced in factories out of these minerals such as metals and allied products. Production in this sphere is thoroughly planned by human brains, human hands and machines designed by human brains. There is no one who will plan and welcome declination in growth prospects. Why still are downturns in economy forced against the wishes of mankind? Why the best of efforts put by both experts and commoners fail to lift up the sagging economies until on the cyclical whim and will of the nature and not that of economists and managers! The answer does not lie in the hands of human beings.
By K.M. PANDIT
K.M PANDIT is an honors graduate in economics and possesses a certificate in marketing management. He remained engaged as professional managers in reputed organizations for about 25 years. He also took up job of academic writing in Research-Academia USA in which he helped students in writing their project works in Economics and marketing management.
His interest in business cycle was aroused in 1996 when he witnessed many ups and downs in global economy especially in Japan. He became very serious about finding the reason for this. He studied the problems deeply and later opened 'Center of Business Intelligence & Forecasting in Kolkata to have professional study on the subject. His study encompasses stock market, commodity market metal markets including gold and silver to learn the system in trends. This book will be centric to gold to highlight the fundamental theory of Solar Functional Energy and TAR econometrics to answer about the most intricate question of why and how the cycle of growth and decline starts. He became member of Kitco gold forum to contribute his forecasts about gold market trends. He contributed his basic theory to his blog http://www.microsolar.wordpress.com to let people and investors know about the new theory of forecasting. There was massive flow of comments on his writings with reservations and doubts but when his forecasts came true letters of appreciation followed.
He published his first e book on 'Solar Functional Energy' He plans his next book on full theory on ' Kantian Energy Cycle of Business' that can answer all the pertinent and mind boggling problems of business cycles.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kanti_Mohan_Pandit
By Kanti Mohan Pandit
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